Feeling a Draft??

The NBA Draft is set to go off tonight and it is not expected to go down without a few surprises and road bumps along the way (like any other Draft). Let's take a look at the prospects in the order I expect them to go:
________________________________________________________________

Greg Oden: The Ohio State center has been the projected first overall selection for over three years when he was still in high school. Unfortunately for him, the NBA set an age limit at 19 and passed a rule to keep kids from entering the NBA until they were at least one year removed from high school.

There are a lot of reasons to be scared of taking Oden first overall. He is still getting over a wrist injury that he sustained nearly a year ago, one of his legs are longer than the other which can cause back problems (which there were already reports that he has a bad back) and the fact that he looks old enough to be Bill Russell's father. His game also resembles Bill Russell's, which is why he will go number one to the Portland Trailblazers tonight.

As good as Kevin Durant will be, this is a league that has not seen wing players win championships since Michael Jordan retired. Swingmen like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Allen Iverson sell tickets but big men like Shaq and Tim Duncan win championships. The thought of having Oden, an amazing presence on the defensive end, as the anchor in your line-up for at least the next ten years is too much to pass up.
________________________________________________________________

Kevin Durant: Nobody knew who this kid was when he went to Texas last fall. He almost came out of nowhere as the freshman started dominating ball games against everyone in the Big 12 and across college basketball. Not only did everyone not expect him to do what he has done in one season with the Longhorns, no one in the game ever did what he accomplished as a freshman. Leading the nation in scoring while still pulling down 11+ rebounds per game, Durant went on to become the first freshman to ever win the Naismith Award, awarded to the best player in college basketball.

He has an incredible shooting touch, amazing athleticism and is smart on the block. He has a wide arsenal of go-to moves that will probably show up on playgrounds and in video games for the next couple of years. The one knock on him throughout the year was that he wasn't a dominant defensive player but he showed flashes of greatness in the NCAA tournament by swiping a few steals and coming from the weakside to block and contest shots.

I, however, am concerned with his poor showing at the NBA scouting combine and lack of strength. At Texas, he was depended on throughout the entire game by coach Rick Barnes and seemed to wear down at the end of games down the stretch. Going through an 82-game schedule in the NBA is going to test his mental and physical endurance. As a world class athlete, he can adjust that in the offseasons and he will be a dominant scorer in the league almost immediately.
________________________________________________________________

Al Horford: Florida's back-to-back National Championships showcased the incredible talent of their four star players. The one man who seemed to grab scouts attention during their second run was power forward Al Horford. Number 42 for the Gators can probably step into the starting line-up for half of the teams in the NBA and contribute right away. An NBA-ready body, high basketball IQ and great shooting touch, he has the tools to be an All-star and, with his talents, can be someone to build your team around.

If there weren't two kids named Oden and Durant in the draft, he would be the consensus number one pick in the draft. But tonight he should be number three for Atlanta and, despite the Hawks need for a point guard, it'd be hard to pass him up.
________________________________________________________________

Mike Conley Jr.: Atlanta needs this kid badly. Many pro scouts compare his ability to that of Finals MVP Tony Parker because of his ability to drive past defenders. He also comes into the draft, like Parker, at a small stature and without a reliable jumpshot. Despite that flaw, he can jump start someone's offense with his speed and will be a dependable player no matter where he goes.
________________________________________________________________

Yi Jianlian: Something that bothers me about society is that we can never compare players of different races to each other. For instance, people compare Durant to Houston swingman Tracy McGrady when he is in the mold of a more athletic Dirk Nowitzski with his length and abilities in the post. This stereotype carries with "the next Yao Ming" proclamation being placed onto the young Yi, who is being compared to his fellow Chinamen. Yi is nothing like Yao as he is more of an athletic perimeter oriented player. You will hear comparisons to Dirk as well, but the player he resembles most is last year's number one pick, Toronto Raptor's forward/center Andrea Bargnani. Both players tend to roam the 3-point arc and play like a guard would.

I have concerns with Yi. He's paper thin and teams are still going to depend on him to do some of the dirty work in the paint. We heard the same hype about Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a foreign-born lottery pick for the Denver Nuggets, who was a lengthy perimeter player who was nothing more than a bust in the NBA. Plus we are not sure of Yi's real age and how he'll measure up after playing 82 games against NBA competition.
________________________________________________________________

Jeff Green: Green has been rising on many draft boards and people are enamored with the kid from Georgetown. Reporters and scouts see him as a smart small forward with a knack for the ball. What I read about Green describes him as a lengthy defender that is a great distributor but someone who is not confident with his shot or creating his own opportunities. His height gives you the idea that he could play the four, but he would never match up against any other bigs or be productive on the block.

I think Green can be a nice player but, other than Yi, he scares me the most as a potential bust.
________________________________________________________________

Spencer Hawes: I take that back, Hawes scares me as a bust more than Green. Spencer Hawes is popular because of his height and remarkable abilities in the post. Great footwork and a nice touch around the basket, but Hawes is flawed as a defender and rebounder. He didn't lead his team in boards while grabbing under seven rebounds per game and does not possess the strength or quickness that he'll need to be an adequate defensive player in the association. Minnesota chooses seventh and whether they deal Garnett or not, they will need Hawes' size for the future.
________________________________________________________________

Corey Brewer: Another player from the back-to-back championship run with the Gators, Brewer is a favorite of mine after his great performance in the championship game against Ohio State. He reminds me of Cuttino Mobley of the Clippers because he has a great defensive mentality and a nice touch on his jump shot. He's also has a long wingspan, is a great athlete and, most importantly, a champion. His intangibles are enough for anyone to bring him into their organization. However, Charlotte may trade out of this pick.
________________________________________________________________

Joakim Noah: Adjectives you will hear about Noah: High-motor, energy, hustle, and the list goes on. Noah will not be a star but he will win you ball games. He's a guy that is all business, isn't afraid to go inside or dive on the floor and has the ability to cover most players to the point that if his man goes into the stands to get a hot dog, Noah will be there to grab the ketchup and mustard. The Bulls need a low post scorer but can worry about that in through free agency. Noah will give them everything they need at number nine.
________________________________________________________________

Brandon Wright: Wright is another player that has immense potential and was seen as a top-5 pick when he declared. His lack of strength and his decision to only workout individually has turned some teams off. He does have the ability to score and has a huge wingspan that will allow him to play at the four. He could still go as high as number four to Milwaukee but he won't get past Sacramento.
________________________________________________________________

Acie Law IV: Law is one of the best players in the draft when it comes to clutch plays. Law was incredible for Texas A&M as he seemed to show up on Sportscenter every night. Some question his ability to play the point but Law told Comcast Sportsnet's Dei Lynam that he did what his team needed him to do. He can come in right away and give a team a boost off the bench. Atlanta is reportedly interested in Georgia Tech point guard Javaris Crittenton, but there are also rumors that Atlanta is willing to trade this pick to Seattle for PG Luke Ridnour. Seattle, already with Durant and Ray Allen, would have an incredible line-up with Law in the mix. Acie Law will make an impression in the NBA next year, count on it.
________________________________________________________________

Al Thornton: The more and more I hear about Thornton, the more I fall in love with the idea of him wearing a Sixer uniform. He is an incredible athlete and people thought he was more of a track star than basketball star. His ability to score the ball is what is so dangerous about him. He can create his own shot, has range on his jumper and has a toughness about him. He shows the ability with his strength to play some four at 6'8 and the only knock I ever hear about him is his age. He'll be 24 in December, but I don't know why people are scared of someone at that age. There are reports that Yi Jianlian is not the the nineteen years old that he claims to be and is instead on the verge of turning 23 later this year, yet that doesn't scare people. So if Yi is 23 but still a question mark, how is he less than a risk over a proven scorer like Thornton?

Bill Simmons of ESPN.com is scared of the Sixers drafting Thornton, so that is enough for me.
________________________________________________________________

Nick Young: When everyone fell in love with Kevin Durant, we hated Nick Young when he and the Trojans knocked him out of the tournament. Young is one of the best shooters in the draft and has is taller than most of the shooting guards in this draft. He is probably the top shooting guard, despite reports that he'll be going so late.
________________________________________________________________

Javaris Crittenton: The Clippers selection here would be Crittenton if the Hawks pass him up (which I'm counting on with the proposed trade). A bigger guy to play the point, while Nick Young is supposed to be one of the best shooters in the draft, Crittenton is supposed to be the best shooter in the draft. With Sam Cassell getting older and the questions surrounding Shawn Livingston's horrible knee injury could scare the Clips into bringing in another guy to run the show in L.A.
________________________________________________________________

Rodney Stuckley: Many people like what Stuckley can do with the basketball. A 6'5 combo guard who can shoot the ball well, he'd fit well into the Pistons rotation and would help immediately if the Pistons cannot retain Chauncey Billups.
________________________________________________________________

Julian Wright: He has been a favorite of mine all year. At 12, the Sixers can either go with Thornton or pick up Wright and it hurts my head to choose between the two. Wright is an incredible player and I am not sure why he has slipped so much in recent weeks. He does not have a lot of range on his jumper but he has the ability to play 4-5 positions on the court. Great passer and great rebounder, he is another jaw-dropping athlete in this deep draft and plays extraordinary defense. He also played at an excellent Kansas program, which doesn't hurt.
________________________________________________________________

This is where I see the first 16 of 30 picks in the draft. It will most likely not go down this way but I'm sure we'll see plenty of surprises tonight.

Note: Some of the photos with players in NBA jerseys are photoshop pictures found on the message boards at Insidehoops.com.

Home Cooking

I promised I would discuss my thoughts for the Sixers three first-round picks. There are reports that General Manager GM Billy King is very keen on moving up. Doing so would cost him #12 and #21. King wants one of the following players: Yi Jianlian, Jeff Green, Spencer Hawes or Joakim Noah.

Hawes would not fit when we already have Samuel Dalembert and Steven Hunter. Yi is too much of a question as he was another prospect that chose to hold private individual workouts and will not solve their power forward needs. Jeff Green would fall into another clutter of small forwards with the Sixers. I only agree with grabbing Noah but not for both picks. There is too much talent in tonight's draft.

My main wishes are that they stay at 12 and grab Thornton. He can give you more scoring than either of the names I mentioned above and he can play the 3 and 4 positions on the court. If you go small, he can match up with other forwards and be a great player for point guard Andre Miller to find cutting to the basket or curling off a screen. I would like to see them grab both Thornton and Julian Wright (via trade), but then you would have a crowded roster with tweener 6'7 players with those two as well as Kyle Korver, Rodney Carney and Andre Iguodala.

If they stay where they are with those picks, I can see taking international players like Tiago Splitter or Rudy Fernandez at #21. Splitter has been playing in the best international league for the last four seasons and is an exceptional player. Tall at 7'0 and quick for his size, he can run the court and give you the size you need for the future. His problem is that he has a huge buyout with his team in Spain and will have to remain overseas until next season. However, this is not as big a deal because Billy King would not mind drafting a foreign player and keeping him across the Atlantic to save cap room and a roster space. Fernandez is going to be a great player where he can be an explosive shooting guard and has a ridiculous jump shot that belongs on a basketball court. Again, they can keep him overseas and bring him over next season.

At the end of the first round, scouts seem to like the idea of Big Baby Glen Davis playing in their frontcourt. His weight scares some off but he has shown that he can be very productive scoring the ball and grabbing rebounds. Think Robert "Tractor" Traylor or Rodney Rogers as Davis' potential.

The Sixers' main issue they need to solve is what kind of team they plan on building. A few seasons ago, Billy King brought in Jim O'Brien to coach the Sixers and he had a clear cut system. O'Brien ran an uptempo offense that spread the ball around and the Sixers were one of the top scoring teams in the NBA. King then brought in Mo Cheeks to establish a team built on a defensive philosophy, but did not surround that team with players to fit that system. They need to decide how they will run their offense, how they will build their defense and who the right players are to draft and build around the Sixers' core.

A Rumor isn't a Rumor if it doesn't Die

More KG talk this afternoon with the draft coming up. Minnesota is now dealing with Phoenix and they are trying to find a third party to facilitate the trade. Danny Ainge is done trying to help Kevin McHale and will keep the fifth pick for the Celtics. Atlanta was in the mix, but their ownership is all screwed up and they are not prepared to add salary (despite the salary they would get belongs to All-star Amare Stoudemire). Recently, Charlotte's name has come up and have the salary cap space to engage in conversations.

Kevin Garnett in Purple?

There was also talk about the Trailblazers sending Joel Przybilla to Milwaukee and the Sonics sending Ray Allen to Boston. Everything should sort itself out tonight.

Our 42 of the DayMy choice for next season's Rookie of the Year
#42 Al Horford